Economy & Job Market News
69% growth in rural female employment during 2018-23, says government report
The Prime Minister’s Financial Admonitory Board (EAC) recently reported a significant increase in female labor force participation in India over the last five years, driven by government initiatives. The Female Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) grew notably in rural areas from 2017-18 to 2022-23, according to research by Dr. Shamika Ravi and Dr. Mudit Kapoor. Programs such as ‘Mudra’ loans and the ‘Drone Didi’ initiative have particularly benefited rural women. The study, based on data from the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), revealed a national rural LFPR increase from 24.6% to 41.5%, while urban LFPR rose modestly from 20.4% to 25.4%. Significant regional disparities were observed, with states like Jharkhand and Bihar showing remarkable growth. The research highlighted that married women in rural areas exhibited higher participation rates compared to single women. Furthermore, the study found that marital status, age, and the presence of young children substantially affect LFPR, with married men’s participation consistently higher than women’s. Overall, while female LFPR has improved nationally, rural areas have outpaced urban regions in growth rates.
Global media concerned about Indian economy. ‘GDP growth slump, tepid public spending
Worldwide media is greatly concerned almost the Indian economy “losing steam” with a BBC examination saying that whereas Fund Serve Nirmala Sitharaman has painted a shinning picture, the numbers appear something else.
In spite of the fact that India is still a vigorous economy with tall development numbers compared to created nations, the droop in Net Household Item (GDP) development signals a lull, it says. A few contend that the central bank’s endeavors to check swelling have confined intrigued rates, possibly hurting development, the article includes.
India’s GDP growth aim for FY25 further slashed to 6.3% by Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley has revised India’s GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year down to 6.3 percent from an earlier estimate of 6.7 percent, following a period of slow growth in the July-September quarter. The slowdown was attributed to declines in private consumption and capital expenditure, though private consumption slightly outperformed, growing by 6 percent compared to 5.4 percent for capex. The services sector showed resilience with a growth of 7.1 percent, while the industrial sector struggled at 3.9 percent, impacted by manufacturing and electricity challenges. However, Morgan Stanley is optimistic about a recovery in the second half of FY25, forecasting an average GDP growth of 6.6 percent due to government spending, improved rural demand, and favorable financial conditions. High-frequency data from October and November suggest an uptick in economic activity, indicating that the previous quarter may have marked the lowest point in the downturn. Regarding monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain current interest rates, with inflation anticipated to decrease to 5-5.5 percent in the coming months. Morgan Stanley highlights the importance of government spending trends, agricultural performance, and domestic liquidity for sustained economic recovery.
China’s Central Bank Chief Signals Support For Economy In 2025
The head of China’s central bank has reiterated plans for a supportive monetary policy aimed at fostering economic growth in 2025, particularly in light of potential trade disputes with the United States. Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the importance of counter-cyclical policy adjustments to address the sluggish economy and promised measures to ensure sufficient liquidity and lower borrowing costs for businesses and households. The upcoming US presidency under Donald Trump could impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports, threatening China’s export-driven growth. In response, the yuan has dropped to its lowest value in nearly a year, raising concerns about weak growth. The People’s Bank of China has already implemented significant interest rate cuts and reduced the reserve requirement ratio, with further cuts anticipated soon. Additionally, Pan announced changes to the M1 money supply definition to enhance the accuracy of economic indicators, which will now include individual demand deposits and funds from digital payment platforms like Alipay and WeChat.
Latest Business News Live Updates Today (November 25, 2024): Adani Group Delivers Strong Results, Surpasses Rs 5 Lakh Crore In Assets
Adani Group’s affiliated companies reported outstanding financial results for the first six months of the current fiscal year. The companies within Adani Portfolio put in a total of Rs 75,277 Crore during the first half of FY25. The group’s profits before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached an all-time high.
Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 25 November 2024
Inflation statistics from the US and the Eurozone are important, with rumors of a December rate cut. Recent survey results show a swift increase in business activity and a decrease in inflationary pressures. Europe’s economic weakness seems to be spreading from the struggling manufacturing sector to the wider services sector. The upcoming week will see the unveiling of business confidence and inflation data from the eurozone and the UK. The week ahead is packed with significant economic data releases and policy discussions.
Self-made Indian billionaire faces biggest test after US fraud charges
Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, a close confidant of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is facing US fraud charges. Federal prosecutors have accused him of orchestrating a $250 million bribery scheme and hiding it to secure funds in the US. The Adani Group has seen a $34 billion drop in their market value on Thursday. There are concerns about how these charges will affect India’s business and political landscape. Mr. Adani is India’s largest private player in the power sector, and his global ambitions extend to coal mines in Indonesia and Australia.
Faulty data overstates surge in UK economic inactivity, finds report
The UK’s job market is performing better than official statistics indicate, with no significant increase in the number of people not working since the pandemic. The employment survey has faced a decline in participation rates, skewing the results towards those more likely to respond. The UK’s workforce has decreased, with a growing number of individuals citing long-term health issues as a reason for not seeking employment. Adam Corlett, the chief economist at the Resolution Foundation, argues that these numbers do not accurately reflect the job market situation and have led to a pessimistic view of the situation. A report released on Wednesday by the think-tank offers a different perspective, based on HMRC tax records that suggest the official survey has been missing out on about 930,000 people who have entered the workforce. The official statistics have been underestimating the likelihood of people having jobs, exaggerating the extent of Britain’s economic inactivity problem, and likely overestimating productivity growth.
India’s Economy Set for 6.5-7% Growth Till 2027, Says S&P Global Ratings
S&P Global Ratings projects India’s economy to grow 6.5-7% annually until 2027, supported by infrastructure spending and private consumption. Strong economic prospects are expected to support bank asset quality and loan growth, but deposit growth may lag. The banking sector’s weak loans will decline to about 3% of gross loans by March 31, 2025. Underwriting standards for retail loans in India are healthy, and delinquencies in this segment remain manageable. However, unsecured personal loans have grown rapidly and could contribute to incremental nonperforming loans. The RBI is becoming more vocal and imposing heavy penalties on banks as it focuses on technology, compliance, customer complaints, data privacy, governance, and know-your-customer issues.
Indian Economy Sailing Smoothly Amid Global Headwinds: Das
The Indian economy has been resilient despite global headwinds, according to Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das. He declined to comment on a rate cut suggestion by Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. Das said inflation is expected to moderate despite periodic humps, and India’s external sector has exhibited strength and stability. The RBI is issuing a draft of the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework and the final guidelines will come out post public comments. The bank is setting up a cyber security center in Bhubaneshwar along with a computing and data center. The central bank’s primary objective is financial stability, and early detection and preemptive action on any risks is the intent of the central bank. The governor also said the RBI does not target a rate for the rupee, and the fore interventions are for ensuring orderly movement and curbing volatility in the currency.
Is India’s growth slowing? Here’s what the top 100 growth indicators are saying
A study by HSBC Global Research shows that 55% of the Indian economy continues to grow. However, indicators of consumption across rural and urban India are softening. The growth exuberance over the past few years was led by the rise of several high-tech sectors. Overall GDP growth is gradually converging from over 7% levels to a more sustainable but still strong potential growth. The benchmark equity index BSE Sensex has tanked nearly 8%, down 6,608 points, to 77690.95 on November 13, 2024.
Tax changes are the straw that breaks UK farmers’ backs
A father-and-daughter duo from north Devon are among thousands of UK farmers feeling the strain of Labour’s budget announcements. The farming industry is struggling with mental health issues, disease, climate, supermarket prices, and uncertainties following Brexit. Farmers are being asked to pay hundreds of thousands of pounds to keep on farming their land. They are not wealthy and their hours worked don’t come close to minimum wage. They feel sick about their future and don’t want to see their livelihoods disappear. Labour told them before the election that it wouldn’t change inheritance tax relief. Food security is a serious issue, and we must make the government think again and realize the implications for the whole country.
How Donald Trump’s 2024 victory could impact the Indian economy
Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings both opportunities and risks for the Indian economy. The IT and pharmaceutical sectors may experience near-term declines as investors assess risks of reduced profitability. If Trump emphasises tax cuts or business incentives, it could benefit Indian exporters, especially in capital-intensive industries. However, if Trump continues with his protectionist stance, India might face similar restrictions, impacting sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and engineering goods. Additionally, if the Trump administration opts to limit work visas, Indian technology and services sectors may see increased costs.
Trump’s second term could offer net positive outlook for Indian economy: Elara Capital report
Elara Capital predicts that a second term for Donald Trump as US President will have favourable outcomes for US equities and a mixed outlook for India’s economy. The Indian rupee may face depreciation pressures due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and firming yields. However, Elara Capital remains optimistic about Indian equities, particularly in sectors like IT, pharma, EMS, and defence. The Federal Reserve may adopt a longer-term hawkish stance, potentially raising interest rates beyond market expectations. India may face trade challenges from Trump’s ‘Make in America’ agenda, but could benefit from his anti-China stance. Elara expects Indian IT to benefit from higher US corporate IT spending, driven by Trump’s proposed tax cuts. India’s oil-import- dependent economy may gain as lower global oil prices benefit OMCs and other sectors reliant on crude oil derivatives.
‘No social life, no plans, no savings’: Americans aren’t reaping benefits of booming US economy
The US economy has been on the upswing in 2024, with new jobs, robust consumer spending, lower interest rates, falling inflation, and record Wall Street highs. However, many Americans still feel financially crippled by inflation, with their incomes not keeping up with soaring costs for housing, food, childcare, insurance, healthcare, fuel, subscriptions, and entertainment. Even those who felt the economy was doing very well complained of the exorbitantly high cost of living. Views on who was responsible for America’s economic shortcomings were split, with some blaming the Biden administration for triggering soaring levels of inflation and rising asset prices through unprecedented interventions to keep the economy afloat.
Where do Trump and Harris stand on housing, taxes and other policies?
The economy is a major concern for US voters in the upcoming presidential election. Polls show that voters of all persuasions remain unhappy about the state of the economy. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have laid out plans to address economic issues such as taxes, cost of living, and labor. Harris plans to expand the child tax credit, reduce healthcare costs, and crack down on price gouging. Trump wants to reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% for companies that manufacture their products in the US. Both candidates have pledged to end taxes on tips and make permanent tax cuts introduced under Trump in 2017. Harris has also proposed to increase the start-up expense tax deduction from $5,000 to $50,000. Trump has proposed to end market-distorting restrictions on oil, natural gas, and coal.